Sunday, July 1, 2012

America's Generation Y not driven to drive

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - To Shoshana Gurian-Sherman, driving seemed like a huge hassle.

"Part of it was laziness," the 23-year-old Minneapolis resident recalled. "I didn't really want to put in the effort to learn how to drive ... I knew how to ride the buses, so it was not necessary.

"And the other thing was, it was just scary, the idea of being in charge of a vehicle that potentially could kill me or other people," Gurian-Sherman said.

She eventually got her license at 18, two years later than she could have, after her parents threatened not to pay for college if she did not learn to drive, a skill they considered to be important.

In her reluctance to drive or own a car, Gurian-Sherman is typical of a certain segment of Generation Y, the coveted marketing demographic encompassing the 80 million U.S. residents between the ages of 16 and 34.

Bigger than the post-World War Two baby-boom generation but without the middle-class expansion that drove the earlier group's consumer habits, Generation Y includes an increasing number of people for whom driving is less an American rite of passage than an unnecessary chore.

"That moment of realizing that you're a grown-up - for my generation, that was when you got your driver's license or car," said Tony Dudzik, a senior policy analyst of the Frontier Group, a California-based think tank that has studied this phenomenon. "For young people now, that moment comes when you get your first cellphone."

U.S. residents started driving less around the turn of the 21st century, and young people have propelled this trend, according to the federal government's National Household Travel Survey.

From 2001 to 2009, the average annual number of vehicle-miles traveled by people ages 16-34 dropped 23 percent, from 10,300 to 7,900, the survey found. Gen Y-ers, also known as Millennials, tend to ride bicycles, take public transit and rely on virtual media.

More than a quarter of Millennials - 26 percent - lacked a driver's license in 2010, up 5 percentage points from 2000, the Federal Highway Administration reported.

THE HIGH COST OF DRIVING

At the same time, older people are driving more, researchers at the University of Michigan found. In 2008, those age 70 and older made up the largest group of drivers on the road, more than 10 percent, which was slightly higher than those in their 40s or 50s.

The Michigan researchers offered a few reasons why some younger drivers hesitate to get behind the wheel: the high cost of owning, fueling and maintaining a car and the convenience of electronic communication.

The Frontier Group's Dudzik suggested a related cause: computer and smartphone applications that make taking public transportation easier, with minute-by-minute tracking of buses and trains and simple online maps and travel directions.

Whether Gen Y-ers will eventually drive more than they do now will affect transportation infrastructure costs, Dudzik said.

Bikes and car-sharing services make it easier to avoid the expense of owning a fossil-fueled vehicle. Environmental concerns are another reason, said David Jacobs of the Tombras Group, a marketing firm based in Knoxville, Tennessee.

"It's not the main reason, but it is a compelling reason," Jacobs said.

More central is the group's general anxiety over finances and the economy, he said.

"They're shouldering higher mortgage costs, rent; their insurance costs are higher than previous generation's," Jacobs said. "And all that's happening after a couple of recessions, so they've really never, as young adults, seen a very healthy, stable economy. They're worried about a lot of things."

To sell cars or anything else to Generation Y, he said, "you have to talk to them at their level and make them interested and show them you are a valuable, reputable company with a quality product and you do care about the environment, the economy."

That fits with Gurian-Sherman's thoughts on the environment in her decision not to own a car: "I don't know if I consider myself an environmentalist, but I care about the impact that I have." (Reporting by Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/americas-generation-y-not-driven-drive-145632280--sector.html

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Blissful Escape

A group of people have either been sent to or signed up for a romantic get away, unsure of who was going to be there or what was going to happen...and just letting fate work.

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How to play energy stocks in a volatile market

Energy investors have had an exhausting year.

While volatility in U.S. stocks has risen over the past quarter ? much of it related to uncertainty in Europe and fears of slowing growth in the U.S. and China ? swings have been especially severe in the energy sector.

The S&P Energy index has moved at least 1 percent in 22 out of 43 trading sessions since the start of May, compared with 17 sessions in the S&P 500 .SPX, as trading soared or sank on the latest headlines.

The group is the only one out of ten S&P sectors to be in the red for the year, down 3.9 percent, compared with S&P gains of 7.7 percent over the same period.

Energy shares are closely tied to the economic growth outlook, which serves as an indication of demand. And concerns about Europe?s debt crisis and slowing expansion in China has hurt the outlook for demand.

In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its growth projections for the year and several companies- including Procter & Gamble Co and PepsiCo? have cut their profit expectations on overseas weakness, further dimming future expectations. Crude oil prices are down almost 17 percent in the year to date.

Despite the volatility and uncertainty, there are still ways for investors to profit from energy plays.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
For investors bullish on the energy sector, recent losses have been a windfall.

?Ten years from now, investors who bought today will realize 2012 was a great opportunity,? said Brian Youngberg, energy analyst at Edward Jones in St. Louis. ?There?s good value to be had across the board, with most of the sector trading well below historical multiples.?

He listed Chevron Corp and Royal Dutch Shell as good opportunities because of their profitability and dividend offering. Also on his list were exploration firms EOG Resources and Schlumberger.

?The whole exploration and production group looks pretty attractive but Occidental (Petroleum Corp) is a very high-quality name,? said Youngberg, who, as per policy at Edward Jones, is not allowed to invest in the companies he follows.

Data supports the idea that the group is oversold. Based on its Thursday close, Dow component Chevron is trading 37 percent below what StarMine estimates as its intrinsic value ? the price at which it should be trading based on its most likely growth trajectory over the next decade or more, with steady growth assumed after that.

Occidental is 23 percent below its intrinsic value while Schlumberger is 37 percent under and EOG is 13 percent under.

Crude oil closed Thursday at $77.69 per barrel, its lowest close since October. Youngberg sees oil trading around a long-term average of $100 a barrel, while Robert Lutts, chief investment officer at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Massachusetts, said prices would shoot up to $90 if governments around the world offered plans to combat economic slowing.

?You?d need to see something like 0.5 percent to flat GDP growth to justify current prices,? Lutts said. ?I don?t think we?re going to get that slow, even if things are bumpy.?

Lutts said it was a good time to look at leaders in the field and pointed to several: Exxon Mobil, Canada?s Imperial Oil? and Pioneer Natural Resources, which he dubbed ?a top-quality explorer on sale right now.?

MAKE AN INDIRECT PLAY

Some companies outside the energy sector, too, are reaping the benefits of lower energy costs, as the savings on fuel and raw materials has helped pad their earnings. ?There?s a massive benefit to the consumer economy when oil falls, and in companies where fuel is a big cost of business, like FedEx Corp, United Parcel Services or cruise companies likes Royal Caribbean, there?s a materially stimulative effect,? said Mitch Rubin, chief investment officer at RiverPark Advisors in New York.

The fortunes of airline stocks are closely tied to the price of fuel, and as crude prices have fallen, the airline index has jumped about 20 percent so far this year. United Continental Holdings Inc? is up 28.5 percent over the same period while Delta Air Lines has soared almost 40 percent.

?The biggest impact will be on consumer spending,? said Keith Schoonmaker, equity analyst at Morningstar in Chicago. ?If I spend $100 less on fuel, that liberates those funds to be spent? elsewhere. The latest read on consumer spending showed some persisting weakness, though, with May spending flat for the first time in six months even as prices fell at the pump.

SHORT THE SECTOR

It?s by no means certain that current prices have hit a floor, making options and exchange-traded products increasingly popular trading tools amid big swings in crude oil prices. ?The best way to play the falling oil prices is to hedge options on oil itself, but for people who are not familiar with the energy market, a better choice would be using options on big energy names or energy sector ETFs,? said J.J. Kinahan, TD Ameritrade chief derivatives strategist in Chicago.

Among energy sector ETFs, three products that short oil have had increased demand ? ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas DUG.P and Proshares Short Oil & Gas DDG.P which track the inverse performance of the oil & gas index, and the iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average which looks at shares of autos and airlines that may profit from falling oil prices.

In the options market, analysts suggest betting on big energy names like Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp and BP PLC, rather than smaller ones which may be more vulnerable to external factors. On Thursday, the biggest open interest in Exxon options was the July $80 puts, when the stock ended near $83.

? Thomson Reuters 2012

Source: http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/29/how-to-play-energy-stocks-in-a-volatile-market/

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